This morning, I mentioned it was unlikely Tucson would see showers this weekend. I wasn’t seeing computer model consistency (some models said yes, others no). Also, moisture values in our atmosphere didn’t look all that impressive. Then came the 12Z model runs.
A weak shortwave trough kicks through the state Saturday. Nearly all short-range computer models suggest enough moisture to fuel a few isolated showers develop along and east of an Oracle-Tucson-Nogales line. It’s far from a sure thing, but I have introduced a 10% chance of showers to your Saturday afternoon forecast. Those odds bump up to 20% for Cochise, Graham and Greenlee Counties.
Rainfall amounts should generally be under 0.10″. A few places in the higher terrain maybe see a bit more than that.
Cancel the BBQ? Absolutely not. Dig the umbrella out of the closet? Might be a good idea.