Monday’s Tucson Forecast: Mild Memorial Day, but “Ice Break” awaits

TODAY’S BLOGCAST

THE CLIFF NOTES

7DayForecast052515

Today – Mostly sunny. 87°, west wind 5-15 MPH.

Tonight – Clear. 62°, southeast wind 5 MPH.

Tomorrow – Sunny. 93°, west wind 5-15 MPH.

TODAY’S FORECAST DISCUSSION

GFS Model valid 5 PM Sunday
GFS Model valid 5 PM Sunday

Staying shy of the 90s for the final afternoon of the holiday weekend.

Highs today reach the upper 80s under mostly sunny skies. Of note, today will be the 14th straight May afternoon with highs below average. This hasn’t happened since 1985, according to the National Weather Service. Light winds out of the west around 5-15 MPH prevail this afternoon, with a slight chance of storms for the White Mountains. Lower elevations will stay dry.

Much of the abbreviated work week sees low to mid 90s for high temperatures with plenty of sunshine.

Models hint at a strong warming trend for the upcoming weekend, courtesy of a building high pressure ridge across the west. For the 1st time in 2015, Metro Tucson makes a run at triple digits Saturday and Sunday. There’s a slight chance of hitting 100° Saturday, but odds favor “ice break” the 2nd half of the weekend.

The average first 100° day historically occurs around May 26th.

MEMORIAL DAY CLIMATOLOGY

MemorialDay2015Climatology

Prior to 1971, Memorial Day was observed on May 30th. Since then, the last Monday of May has been designated as Memorial Day. Above is the holiday weather history in Tucson. The Old Pueblo has recorded rain a mere 7 times since 1895, with the last measurable Memorial Day rainfall in 1992. Of note, today’s forecast high will be the coolest we’ve seen since 2011.

SKY CANDY OF THE DAY

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Quite the heavenly sight captured in northern Arizona yesterday. Thanks Rick Furmanek for tweeting this awesome photo to me!

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