Thursday’s Tucson Forecast: Dolores driving up storm chances

TODAY’S BEAMISH BLOGCAST

THE CLIFF NOTES

7DayForecast071615

Today – 30% chance of storms. 99°, west-southwest wind 10-15 MPH.

Tonight – 10% chance of storms. 77°, south wind 5 MPH.

Tomorrow – 40% chance of storms. 95°, west wind 5-10 MPH.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

GFS model atmospheric moisture (PWAT) forecast through Sunday
GFS model atmospheric moisture (PWAT) forecast through Sunday

Slight thunder threat today. This weekend is a different story.

A 30% chance of storms is possible in the metro this afternoon. Like the last several days, areas south of Tucson stand the best chance of scattered storms today. Daytime highs reach the upper 90s, with storm chances decreasing to 10% during the overnight hours.

Today’s Monsoon Prediction Index is 3 out of 10, indicating a low thunderstorm risk in Tucson.

Hurricane Dolores tracks west of Baja California the next 72 hours, setting the stage for a gulf surge of moisture into the state. Storm chances increase to 40% Friday, 60% Saturday and 40% on Sunday. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, with amounts in the 0.50-1.50″ range from Metro Tucson and points west. Highs this weekend drop to the low to mid 90s.

The isolated flavor of the Monsoon returns early next week as tropical moisture retreats to the south.

SKY CANDY OF THE DAY

Mathias Halfmann

As advertised yesterday, a few overnight storms popped up in Tucson. Mathias Halfmann captured one of them from his perch in the Catalina Foothills. Beautiful shot of lightning over the Old Pueblo!

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