Friday’s Tucson Forecast: Drying out & heating up for the weekend

TODAY’S BEAMISH BLOGCAST

THE CLIFF NOTES

7DayForecast072415

Today – 20% chance of storms. 95°, west wind 10 MPH.

Tonight – Partly cloudy late. 75°, southeast wind 5 MPH.

Tomorrow – 10% chance of storms, hot. 100°, west wind 10 MPH.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

HRRR072415

Decreasing storm chances for your outdoor plans this weekend.

High pressure over west Texas helps maintain some Monsoon moisture today. A lack of instability may keep activity in check again this afternoon, leading to a 20% chance of metro storms. Favored areas for scattered storm development look to be along the International Border through this evening. Tucson top out in the mid 90s for daytime highs.

Today’s Monsoon Prediction Index is 3 out of 10 for Tucson, indicating a low storm risk.

Slightly drier air fills in over the weekend, as high pressure wobbles over Texas & Oklahoma. Much of southern Arizona stays thunder-free Saturday and Sunday. Metro Tucson has a 10% chance at a stray storm with highs reaching triple digits.

Next week features a potential uptick in storm chances. Monsoon moisture increases, which may interact with a mid-level disturbance. Scattered storms are possible Tuesday through Thursday.

SKY CANDY OF THE DAY

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Mike Olbinski captured this shelf cloud (AKA “shelfie) near Tombstone yesterday. The contrast in rain-cooled air descending & warm, moist air rising ahead of the storm makes for this dramatic cloud. This was part of a thunderstorm complex that dropped a record-setting 2.02” rain at Bisbee-Douglas International Airport.

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