Tuesday’s Tucson Forecast: How will morning clouds impact afternoon storm chances?

TODAY’S BEAMISH BLOGCAST

THE CLIFF NOTES

7DayForecast082515

Today – 30% chance of storms. 94°, west-southwest wind 10 MPH.

Tonight – 20% chance of storms overnight. 74°, southeast wind 5 MPH.

Tomorrow – 30% chance of storms. 99°, west wind 5-10 MPH.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Our in-house RPM model shows an active evening. Will it actually happen?
Our in-house RPM model shows an active evening. Will it actually happen?

Plenty of cloud cover this morning, plenty of uncertainty for storm development later today.

There is a 30% chance of late day/evening storms. However, the longer morning clouds hang on, the more stable the atmosphere becomes. If cloud cover exists much of the day, storm chances will decrease.

Today’s Monsoon Prediction Index is 3 out of 10 for Tucson, indicating a low storm risk.

Scattered storms are possible again tomorrow as high pressure begins to slide west from New Mexico. The high anchors over northwestern Mexico by late week, decreasing storms to the isolated variety and increasing high temps. Daytime highs reach the 103-105° Friday through the weekend.

Models indicate a return of scattered storms Monday of next week, as moisture interacts with a west coast trough.

SKY CANDY OF THE DAY

8-24-2015 Saguaro Lightning

Bolt over the Babad Du’ag vista, captured last night by the world famous Greg McCown. Does he ever take a bad photo?

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