Monday’s Tucson Forecast: Scattered storms to wrap August

TODAY’S BEAMISH BLOGCAST

THE CLIFF NOTES

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Today – 30% chance of late day storms. 99°, west-southwest wind 5-10 MPH.

Tonight – Partly cloudy after midnight. 74°, southeast wind 5-10 MPH.

Tomorrow – 20% chance of storms. 97°, west-southwest wind 5-10 MPH.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

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The new work week features a familiar trend with storms.

High pressure east of the state supplies ample moisture for scattered storms today. However, weak winds aloft means storms won’t move much after developing. Tucson stands a 30% chance of storms by late afternoon, while areas south of the metro have a 40% chance of storms.

Today’s Monsoon Prediction Index is 3 out of 10 for Tucson, with locally heavy rainfall being the primary concern.

A Pacific trough shoves some Monsoon moisture east of the state tomorrow through the rest of the work week. Isolated storms are possible as a result, with daytime highs this week staying in the 90s.

Models are at odds over the Labor Day weekend forecast. The American GFS model indicates the development of Tropical Storm Kevin near Baja California, which would trigger a moisture surge into the state. The European model keeps tropical moisture well away from the state. For now, there is a 20% chance of isolated storms for Saturday and Sunday.

SKY CANDY OF THE DAY

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Close encounter, captured Saturday night by Mike Sparky P. He says this bolt was roughly 1/4 mile away from his truck when he took this photo. BOOM!

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