Monday’s Tucson Forecast: Flash Flood Watch for southern Arizona

TODAY’S BEAMISH BLOGCAST

THE CLIFF NOTES

7DayForecast092115

Today – 100% chance of rain. 84°, east-southeast wind 10-15 MPH.

Tonight – 100% chance of rain through midnight. 70°, southeast wind 5 MPH.

Tomorrow – 30% chance of storms. 88°, southwest wind 5-10 MPH.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for all of southern Arizona until Tuesday afternoon. This includes Metro Tucson, Nogales, Sierra Vista, Safford, Douglas, Oracle, Ajo & surrounding communities.

Tropical Depression 16 over the northern Gulf of California supplies ample moisture and widespread rain through midnight. Any activity that develops will be capable of locally heavy rainfall. Metro rainfall totals are expected to be in the 0.50-1.50” range, with 1-2” possible along and east of a Safford-Benson-Nogales line.

These rainfall totals will be highly dependent on the track of the tropical depression. A shift to the west puts Metro Tucson in play for 2”, while an easterly track puts the bulk of the moisture across Cochise, Graham and Greenlee Counties.

Monday’s rain chance stands at 100%, with Tuesday featuring a 30% chance of storms. A few stray thunderstorms are possible Wednesday, followed by a drying trend heading into the weekend.

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