Tuesday’s Tucson Forecast: Increasing metro thunder threat this week

TODAY’S BEAMISH BLOGCAST

THE CLIFF NOTES

7DayForecast062816

Today – 20% chance of storms. 102°, east wind 5-15 MPH.

Tonight – 10% chance of storms. 79°, southeast wind 10-15 MPH.

Tomorrow – 50% chance of storms. 98°, east-southeast wind 5-15 MPH.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

MPI062816

Slim storm chances, at least for now.

Metro Tucson stands a 20% chance of storms this afternoon. Areas that may be favored for scattered storms today could be south and northeast of Tucson. Highs peak in the 100s for the 22nd time this year in the Old Pueblo. A stray shower or storm can’t be ruled out overnight area-wide.

Monsoon moisture increases over the next 24 hours, as high pressure splits into two centers. This pattern allows a mid-level disturbance to stall out south of the border, potentially triggering scattered storms mid to late week. The most active days appears to be Thursday and Friday, as Tucson rain chances rise to 60%. Locally heavy rainfall is a concern, as storms may be slow-moving.

High pressure reconsolidates over northern Mexico for the holiday weekend, drawing in drier air from the west. Saturday features a slight storm chance, with storm development possibly confined to the mountains Sunday and the 4th of July.

SKY CANDY OF THE DAY

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Monday night Monsoon lights, captured in the Phoenix Metro by Sean Funk.

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