Tuesday’s Tucson Forecast: How Newton impacts southern Arizona

TODAY’S BEAMISH BLOGCAST

THE CLIFF NOTES

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Today – 30% chance of storms. 95°, south wind 10-15 MPH.

Tonight – 60% chance of storms. 72°, east-southeast wind 15-25 MPH.

Tomorrow – 100% chance of rain, windy. 79°, east-southeast wind 20-40 MPH.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for much of southern Arizona from 5 PM today until 8 PM Wednesday. This includes Metro Tucson, Nogales, Sierra Vista, Douglas, Safford, Oracle & surrounding communities.

Hurricane Newton continues tracking toward Arizona. While scattered storms are possible late this afternoon through tonight, the heavy rainfall likely arrives tomorrow morning. Newton may still be tropical storm when crossing into Santa Cruz County late tomorrow morning, weakening to a remnant low Wednesday afternoon. As a result, east-southeast winds may gust up to 40 MPH across southern Arizona.

Between tonight and late tomorrow afternoon, 1-3″ rain is possible from Sells and points east. It should be noted that the heavy rainfall placement will be dictated by the track of Newton. Most models agree on the main track to be somewhere between Sells & Tucson. A few models shift the track east of Metro Tucson, which would put the bulk of the heaviest rain across Cochise, Graham and Greenlee Counties.

SKY CANDY OF THE DAY

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Calm before deluge, captured this morning in Nogales by Lori Grace Bailey. Outer cloud bands of Hurricane Newton should slide into southern Arizona by this afternoon.

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