How accurate is Punxsutawney Phil?

Since 1886, Punxsutawney Phil has been giving his annual prediction on when Spring will arrive. The forecast formula is simple for Phil: if the seer of seers sees his shadow, there’s 6 more weeks of Winter. No shadow means an early Spring.

What I’m about to tell you may break your heart. Brace yourself.

That groundhog this day is famous for? Let’s just say he’s got a sketchy track record. In the 132 year history of Groundhog Day, Punxsutawney Phil has a forecast accuracy rate of…



In fairness, he does have a killer movie.

Stormfax Weather Almanac has a great summary of Groundhog Day. Click here to read the history of Groundhog Day & Punxsutawney Phil’s year by year forecast.


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